By Connection Mexico Global
- The possibility of a new world order
- The most convenient position for Mexico
The hereby document has the purpose to provide elements for understanding the new international reality, emphasizing two key figures, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, both actors are recipient of political traditions that implicate them in a confronting inertia, but the necessary rearrangements which ensure world peace make them indispensable allies, beyond the relative electoral anecdote to the possible Russian intervention in the American election, and even the American attack against Syrian objectives of the Bashar al-A´sad’s army and the apparently new tension between Washington and Moscow.
The Russian-USA relationship must not be understood under the cold war context, this finished 30 years ago. The Russian Federation has maintained its relative area of influence, the prevailing nexuses with its peripheral countries must be analyzed under the economic and security context and the Russia-USA relationship must be analyzed, and at the same time understood, under universal security premises since both are the military superpowers of the world and they maintain a similar economic and trading dynamics, beyond the fact that Russia is the 13th world economy, the truth is that the relative military power (installed capacity and military expenditure) turn the Great Russia into the second superpower of the orb.
Trump and Putin are the beginning of new roads in the world rearrangement that the new moment of pragmatic peace can guarantee.
The tendency to misunderstand peace as a flourishing condition status and as stage of consolidation of democracy and capitalism impedes to objectify the regional realities, since the disaggregated world advance, ideological and religious radicalisms and the inertia still in force in good part of the regions with middle and low economic development make it impossible to establish peace based on the postulates that the Obama era supposed viable, but that in fact require a dose of pragmatism that gives rise to this alliance between the new Russia and the American power.
This new international reality is based on five premises that will be proven by this document.
- FIRST: The misinterpretation of the situation in Middle East by the American governments (Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria) and the petroleum closeness with Saudi Arabia, resulted in the consolidation of radical Jihadism, where to a large extent, the most pragmatic vision of Russia allows greater stability margins in the area.
- SECOND: The New Russia should grow as an economic power that matches it military capacity. Its political and religious orthodox character bring it closer to the Russia of the Czars than to the extinct Soviet Union. Putin is a factor of this consolidation that allows the connivance with the USA, provided that the interests of Western Europe do not jeopardize its historical stability (NATO-Ukraine).
- THIRD: The American expansion in Asia-Pacific responds to the indispensable need of economic growth of capitalism; the Nixon- Deng Xiaoping era has finished as China’s biggest economic expansion cycle, this new reality requires containment rules in Asia, hence the conflicts in this region.
- FOURTH: Putin and Trump, beyond specific readings, concur in a strategic common vision, and both gather the greatest armed force of the world. This new alliance is the only true basis of a lasting pragmatic peace. The increase of Islamic population in Europe reduces the margins of western liberalism and increases Putin’s and Trump’s influence among Western European nationalisms (conflict within the interior of the NATO countries). Russia’s and USA´s combined military expenditure equals the rest of the 20 first militarized nations of the world. USA’s and Russia’s installed military capacity are the first and second worldwide.
- FIFTH: The conflict borderlines, Syria and Iraq, Ukraine, North Korea (military viable due to Chinese money) and the Sea of Southern China shall require NATO’s reconsideration about Russia’s relocation as a regional power in Europe and Middle East and the redefinition of China as an Asian regional power and as a world commercial axis.
Vladimir Putin, the ideal man for the New Russia.
Who is Vladimir Putin?
Born on October 7th, 1952, he currently is, for the third time, president of the Russian Federation and therefore indisputable leader of the biggest country in the world. Putin graduated in Law at the State University of Leningrad, to work then at the intelligence services of the Soviet Union (KGB). After a period as a municipal officer in Leningrad, he was appointed, in 1998, director of the Federal Security Service (FSS) and then, at the same time, he was named Secretary of the National Security Council, from that position he has been identified as the coordinator of the Russian efforts at the second Chechen War. After Yeltsin’s resignation on the last day of 1999, Putin became the Interim President.
His popularity and electoral successes ratified him during the 2000 presidential elections; in that period, there was a substantial economic growth and an important decrease in poverty; On March 2004, he was reelected with 71.3% of the votes; on 2008, his candidate Dimitri Medvedev, won the elections and Putin took over as Prime Minister; in 2012, he was elected president again with 63.6% of the votes.
The approval and consensus of Putin among the Russian people is considered from any parameter, very high.
Putin’s foreign policy.
Vladimir Putin has very clear that maintaining leadership in his nation implies a speech accompanied by a series of actions that place Russia as it has historically happened, as the vigorous center defending values and orthodox autocephalous Christianity.
Good part of Putin´s actions are oriented to place Russia as a world order actor, but let us make no mistake, the limits of Russian growth are well traced in their leader´s plan, Russia is, without a doubt, a determinant European and Asian actor, but not a world dimension actor in the near future.
Its dependence on the sale of hydrocarbons places it in a complex situation against actors as OPEC and Saudi Arabia that possess enormous reserves and small populations.
Main Petroelum Producers of the World and their populations
|Population||Surface Sq. Km||Production|
|2||Saudi Arabia||Middle East||Yes||29,195,895||2,149,690||12|
|7||United Arab Emirates||Middle East||Yes||9,003,000||83,600||3.5|
|*Daily Million barrels of crude oil|
|Research by Connection México Global with data from CIA, MB and OPEC.|
 Information about Venezuela petroleum production vary depending on the source.
Donald J. Trump: the leadership of a new era.
Born on June 1946, he studied Baccalaureate in Economics at the Wharton University in 1968 and his professional degree in the same subject at the Fordham University, as of 1971 he ran the family real estate Company which he renamed as Trump Organization; in 1988, he purchased the Taj-Mahal Casino and in 1989, his businesses underwent a financial crisis which was solved in the 90’s; Trump’s real estate projects include the Trump World Tower, a 72 story building close to the UN’s headquarters, the Trump International Hotel & Tower, a 44 story building at Columbus Circle and besides he has under his control or ownership hundreds of thousands of square meters in Manhattan; he owns towers and hotels in Honolulu, Chicago, Toronto and Tampa; in 2016, Forbes magazine mentioned that his fortune reached 4,500 million dollars, however, in 2014 the balance of his declared wealth was of 8,700 million dollars, including the value he gives to his brand.
Of Presbyterian religion, he has either been author or coauthor of 18 books. The controversial U.S. President has been repeatedly pointed as an ally of Vladimir Putin, who was accused of having intervened in the American elections on behalf of the Democratic opposition. He took over on January 20th, 2017 after a very commented and complex election, backed up on a consistent speech that establishes as a priority the protection of employment in the USA and a policy of minor intervention on international affairs that are non-priority for the White House agenda. This topic has been talked about in our document “The reasons to understand and get along with Donald Trump”.
An important fact is that, while the First Minister Xi Jinping was in a meeting with him at his Mar-a-Lago home, he ordered an attack against facilities of the Syrian army, something that the Obama administration, despite his scaled speech against Bashar al-A´sad had not carried out.
Since his assumption of office, the tension with North Korea and China has been increasing due to the situation of the Southern China Sea and the nuclear tests of the North Korean government.
Why Trump can lead a new stage of world equilibrium?
Notwithstanding his peculiar personality, the lack of organic links with the establishment and his clear relationship with the North American working and middle class which is amidst the widest crisis of its history, he is allowed to make decisions based on a pragmatic view which is far away from the political correctness of the world reality, which puzzles to those who intend to analyze him from a traditional perspective since they skip the most congruent element of his action which is the resolution of critical situations accepting the costs which are inherent to them, thing which no traditional politician practices due to the importance given to the transcendence of the character that the politician creates as his public figure.
Trump runs the charge and commission without assuming himself under the complex judgement of history. However, the purpose of his action does not undergo delineable roads, but to the old Latin premise per angusta ad augusta.
Therefore, Donald Trump has clear that the USA, to comply with its foreign role, needs internal equilibria that were getting lost and sees NATO as a higher cost than a benefit, Putin as a natural operator of the complex situation in Middle East, and knows that the battle to come is in Asia-Pacific.
These premises are valid in function of the vision of the today President of the USA, and it is natural that once in front of the oval office the interests of the groups of powers that generated the current status intend to defend him and the Trump’s administration must reach a middle point, but the important thing is that unlike Obama there is a different strategic vision based on a different pact of interests.
Summarizing we would say that Obama’s administration was sustained on a vision more linked to the cold war and to the American alliances with Saudis which first chapter was the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan and which general inertia consisted of sustaining the Western European border and maintaining the premises created in the East by Nixon and Deng Xiaoping, very close to the vision of the doctrine about China by Shigeru Yoshida, the emblematic Japanese First Minister of the decade of the 50’s who did not second the American vision that said Chinese communism was pro-Soviet because he assumed Mao’s own sino-centrism.
That is, until Barack Obama’s administration, the USA believed that New Russia and the USSR were very alike, that the petroleum Alliance with the Saudis, plus less some guarantees to the Israeli State and an economic alliance with China would allow the consolidation of the so called Unipolarity. The USA as the only predominant power, and free market and American style democracy, its expansion tools.
For Paul R. Pillar, researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the University of Georgetown and former CIA agent, the initial mistakes of analysis about Russia by the Americans, lie in the West. On an interview with Jonathan Marcus, from the BBC, he pointed out:
“The relationship started to go wrong when the West did not treat Russia as a nation which had freed from the Soviet communism”. (…) “It had to be received as such in a new community of nations, but instead, it was considered as the successor state of USSR, inheriting its status as the main focus of Western mistrust “.
John Sawers, former boss of the Intelligence Secret Services (MI6) of the United Kingdom and former British ambassador before the UN, during a recent interview with the BBC said that the West had not paid enough attention to establishing a correct strategic relationship with Russia during the last eight years.
“If there were a clear understanding between Washington and Moscow about the standards that should be adopted in order not to try to tear down the other’s system then the resolution of regional problems such as Syria, Ukraine or North Korea would be something easier “.
The vices of this vision that supposes Russia as the heiress of the USSR, brought as consequence cold relationships with the New Russia, chaos in the Middle East and the incursion of China in a model of production and market that destabilizes world trade.
Thus, what Obama believed and what the USA needed seemed to be two different things; Trump, on the other hand, supposes that the American leadership is sustained on a powerful domestic market, tightly and decidedly linked to a middle and a working class, with solid purchasing power; he does not see imminent military danger for the US by Russia and it does not make sense the attitude of the European regimes to allow the enormous growth of the Islamic pressure in the West, and finally its allies, Japan and South Korea are been directly affected by a regional Chinese leadership that through its own positions and the ones of North Korea jeopardize the regional stability.
Therefore Trump’s tendency, not doctrine (since it is malleable and not rigid), in general sketches out a close Russia, a strong Israel, a less protagonist NATO in affairs such as the one from Ukraine and a decided increase of the military presence in the Pacific, as well as different containment policies to the irregular and expansive Chinese commercial activity.
Download the complete article Putin & Trump the necesary alliance
 “The white Americans are dying”. Study presented in Washington by the Nobel prices in Economics, Angus Deaton and Anne Case. El País, april 25th, 2017.
 Latin locution that means: To the highest purposes through the fastest roads.
 Shigeru Yoshida (1878 – 1967). Japanese Foreign Policy advances mainly focusing on economic growth to leave the military issue as a marginal aspect However this basic political line which validity had been considered evident (1946–47, 1948–54), started to get questioned during the middle of the nineties. Consult: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/1951-01-01/japan-and-crisis-asia
 Op cit.
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 Pan-Slavism was a cultural and political doctrine that promoted international solidarity among Slavic nations of East Europe in the XIX century, with the achievement of their political unity as the maximum objective. It started to operate in 1830 and it further acquired a more political appearance. The Russian Empire, the only independent Slavic state, used Pan Slavism as an excuse to carry out its expansionist projects; its support to the Serbian slaves, faced with the Austro-Hungarian Empire would ease the beginning of World War I (1914-1918).
Orthodox Christianity, the (Western) Orthodox Church is a branch of Christianity, one of the main religions of the world, with important differences in respect of Catholicism. According to different appraisals, the number of Orthodox Christians in the world is of about 220 and 260 million. Western Orthodox Church includes the Orthodox churches of Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, Belarus, Moldavia, Georgia, Macedonia and Cyprus, among others it is worth, mentioning that most Orthodox Christians live in Eastern Europe, Russia, the Near East, and the Balkans. Considering the number of followers, the Russian Orthodox Church, headed by the Patriarch of Moscow and of the whole Russia, is the biggest Christian Orthodox church of the world. It is an autocephalous one that means, independent of all religious authority of the highest rank. According to traditional historiography the official birth of this church happened with Christianity of the Russ of Kiev by the Saint Prince Vladimir in year 988 The Russian autocephalous church was established in 1448, when the bishops, in an independent way and without the participation of the Patriarch of Constantinople chose the country’s ecclesial chief.
The Eastern and Western Schism, provoked by a combination of cultural, politic and religious factors, took place in 1054, when Pope Leon IX (head of the Roman branch) excommunicated the Constantinople Patriarch, , Miguel I Cerulario (head of the eastern orthodox branch),who at the same time condemned the pope at a mutual excommunication. Henceforward the Catholic and orthodox churches are divided and separated The main conflicts that took to the definite division between the Eastern orthodox church and the Roman Catholic church focused on the deviation of Rome of the original conclusions of the seven ecumenical councils, such as the intention of a universal pope supremacy. https://actualidad.rt.com/rtpedia/198772-iglesia-ortodoxa-caracteristicas-religion